Multiple sources of predictive uncertainty in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange

Net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) is typically measured directly by eddy covariance towers or is estimated by ecosystem process models, yet comparisons between the data obtained by these two methods can show poor correspondence. There are three potential explanations for this discrepancy. First, estimates of NEE as measured by the eddy-covariance technique are laden with uncertainty and can potentially provide a poor baseline for models to be tested against. Second, there could be fundamental problems in model structure that prevent an accurate simulation of NEE. Third, ecosystem process models are dependent on ecophysiological parameter sets derived from field measurements in which a single parameter for a given species can vary considerably. The latter problem suggests that with such broad variation among multiple inputs, any ecosystem modeling scheme must account for the possibility that many combinations of apparently feasible parameter values might not allow the model to emulate the observed NEE dynamics of a terrestrial ecosystem, as well as the possibility that there may be many parameter sets within a particular model structure that can successfully reproduce the observed data. We examined the extent to which these three issues influence estimates of NEE in a widely used ecosystem process model, Biome-BGC, by adapting the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. This procedure involved 400,000 model runs, each with randomly generated parameter values from a uniform distribution based on published parameter ranges, resulting in estimates of NEE that were compared to daily NEE data from young and mature Ponderosa pine stands at Metolius, Oregon. Of the 400,000 simulations run with different parameter sets for each age class (800,000 total), over 99% of the simulations underestimated the magnitude of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange, with only 4.07% and 0.045% of all simulations providing satisfactory simulations of the field data for the young and mature stands, even when uncertainties in eddy-covariance measurements are accounted for. Results indicate fundamental shortcomings in the ability of this model to produce realistic carbon flux data over the course of forest development, and we suspect that much of the mismatch derives from an inability to realistically model ecosystem respiration. However, difficulties in estimating historic climate data are also a cause for model-data mismatch, particularly in a highly ecotonal region such as central Oregon. This latter difficulty may be less prevalent in other ecosystems, but it nonetheless highlights a challenge in trying to develop a dynamic representation of the terrestrial biosphere.     

Considering science needs to deliver actionable science

Conservation practitioners, natural resource managers, and environmental stewards often seek out scientific contributions to inform decision-making. This body of science only becomes actionable when motivated by decision makers considering alternative courses of action. Many in the science community equate addressing stakeholder science needs with delivering actionable science. However, not all efforts to address science needs deliver actionable science, suggesting that the synonymous use of these two constructs (delivering actionable science and addressing science needs) is not trivial. This can be the case when such needs are conveyed by people who neglect decision makers responsible for articulating a priority management concern and for specifying how the anticipated scientific information will aid the decision-making process. We argue that the actors responsible for articulating these science needs and the process used to identify them are decisive factors in the ability to deliver actionable science, stressing the importance of examining the provenance and the determination of science needs. Guided by a desire to enhance communication and cross-literacy between scientists and decision makers, we identified categories of actors who may inappropriately declare science needs (e.g., applied scientists with and without regulatory affiliation, external influencers, reluctant decision makers, agents in place of decision makers, and boundary organization representatives). We also emphasize the importance of, and general approach to, undertaking needs assessments or gap analyses as a means to identify priority science needs. We conclude that basic stipulations to legitimize actionable science, such as the declaration of decisions of interest that motivate science needs and using a robust process to identify priority information gaps, are not always satisfied and require verification. To alleviate these shortcomings, we formulated practical suggestions for consideration by applied scientists, decision makers, research funding entities, and boundary organizations to help foster conditions that lead to science output being truly actionable.     

Engaging stakeholders in research to address water–energy–food (WEF) nexus challenges

The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus has become a popular, and potentially powerful, frame through which to analyse interactions and interdependencies between these three systems. Though the case for transdisciplinary research in this space has been made, the extent of stakeholder engagement in research remains limited with stakeholders most commonly incorporated in research as end-users. Yet, stakeholders interact with nexus issues in a variety of ways, consequently there is much that collaboration might offer to develop nexus research and enhance its application. This paper outlines four aspects of nexus research and considers the value and potential challenges for transdisciplinary research in each. We focus on assessing and visualising nexus systems; understanding governance and capacity building; the importance of scale; and the implications of future change. The paper then proceeds to describe a novel mixed-method study that deeply integrates stakeholder knowledge with insights from multiple disciplines. We argue that mixed-method research designs—in this case orientated around a number of cases studies—are best suited to understanding and addressing real-world nexus challenges, with their inevitable complex, non-linear system characteristics. Moreover, integrating multiple forms of knowledge in the manner described in this paper enables research to assess the potential for, and processes of, scaling-up innovations in the nexus space, to contribute insights to policy and decision making.     

Relationships between marine microorganisms and the wood-boring isopod Limnoria tripunctata

The quantities and the behavior of particulate proteinous carbon (PPC) were investigated at an experimental station in Funka Bay, southern Hokkaido from February 1974 to January 1975 using R. V. Ushio Maru. The amino acid composition of PPC, quantity of particulate organic carbon (POC), PPC:POC ratio, concentration of plant pigments and the primary productivity and heterotrophic activity in situ were measured to clarify PPC status. The net production was ca. 100 g C m^-2 year^-1. The inflow of Oyashio water and stagnation during early spring and summer may increase productivity. The net production during this period attained 70% of the net production for the whole year. The concentration of chlorophyll changed monthly parallel to changes in the primary production of the surface waters. The concentration of PPC and the PPC:POC ratio in the surface layer decreased gradually during the stagnation period of the Oyashio water. This implies that the PPC in the particulate organic matter was more easily consumed than the other organic constituents by the increased heterotrophic activity in summer. In contrast, low concentrations of PPC and high PPC:POC ratios were found during the stagnation period of Tsugaru warm water from autumn to winter. Concentrations of PPC and POC were not evenly distributed throughout the year; they decreased with depth during the stagnation period in summer. On the other hand, higher concentrations of PPC and POC, and an increased PPC:POC ratio were noted in samples collected near the sea bed, compared with the concentration and the ratio of the upper layer throughout the year. It seems likely that the particulate organic matter, originating from resuspension of bottom sediments containing proteins, was produced by the benthos. The turnover time of PPC in the upper layer was 7 to 11 days in summer and 45 to 100 days in winter; the turnover time for POC was 14 to 28 days in summer and 97 to 147 days in winter.     

Adjustment costs from environmental change

The paper is concerned with the case whereby the distribution of a firm's productivity shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm. Over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts, incurring adjustment costs in the process. The long-run loss in profits (±) due to the shift in the distribution we term the equilibrium response. The transitory loss in profits, incurred while the firm is learning about the distribution shift, is termed the adjustment cost. The theory is then applied to the problem of measuring adjustment costs in the face of imperfectly observed climate change in agriculture. The empirical part of the paper involves estimating a restricted profit function for agricultural land in a five-state region of the Midwest US as a function of prices, land characteristics, actual weather realizations and expected weather. We then simulate the effect of an unobserved climate shock, where learning about the climate shock is by observing the weather and updating prior knowledge using Bayes Rule. We find adjustment costs to climate change are 1.4% of annual land rents.     

The prenatal determination of glucose-6-phosphatase activity by fetal liver biopsy

Two fetuses at risk for glucose-6-phosphatase deficiency had in utero liver biopsies. Analysis of each showed this enzyme activity to be in the normal range and the pregnancies continued. Neither child has any clinical or metabolic evidence of glucose-6-phosphatase deficiency.     

Field Reliability of the Orsat Analyzer

Results from four field based collaborative tests and from one laboratory based collaborative test of the Orsat analytical procedure are discussed. The results from the five collaborative tests demonstrate that routinely using Orsat data to convert particulate emissions from combustion sources to the reference conditions of 50 % excess air and 12% carbon dioxide may introduce sizeable errors in the corrected particulate loading. Ways to improve the Orsat apparatus and increase the reliability of the data are suggested.

Also reported are the results from field and laboratory studies on the reliability of using individual carbon dioxide and oxygen analyzers of the Fyrite* type to determine stack gas molecular weight. The laboratory study, which was done using three cylinders containing mixtures of carbon dioxide, oxygen, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen of known concentration, determined that these analyzers give carbon dioxide and oxygen analyses of sufficient reliability to yield accurate molecular weights. The results of the field studies, which were done on actual flue gas samples, also support this conclusion.     

Mercury proxies and mercury dynamics in a forested watershed of the US Northeast

Although many studies focus on mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) dynamics in streams, challenges remain in identifying the relative importance of land cover and seasonality at regulating Hg and MeHg dynamics at the watershed scale. Developing robust proxies for Hg and/or MeHg determination also remains a challenge. Our study used Hg, MeHg, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration measurements and various DOC fluorescence indices to characterize Hg and DOC dynamics in a forested watershed of the US Northeast. Principal component analysis indicated that land cover/landscape position (i.e., headwater vs. wetland-influenced area vs. lake-influenced area) explained 44 % of the variance in Hg, MeHg, DOC concentrations, and DOC quality during the snow-free season, while seasonality (i.e., air temperature and discharge) explained only 21 % of the variance in the results. Furthermore, finding a good proxy for Hg that is valid across a range of landscape positions remains a challenge; however, regression analysis indicated that the fluorescence peak Humic C (excitation?=?350 nm; emission?=?max (420–480)), which corresponds to the presence of melanoidins in water, explained 21 % of the variability in MeHg concentrations across both space and time (p?=?0.001), and thus appears to be a possible proxy for MeHg determination in our study watershed. From a management perspective, land cover modifications (lake, reservoir, and wetland) are likely to play more important roles at regulating Hg, MeHg, and DOC exports at the watershed scale than long-term changes in the climate of this region.